Weather Kvetching

Last week’s rain was pretty significant around the Southland, and my area got 1.18″ of the wet stuff. Late last week it was on the 7-day that we would be having rain today and tomorrow. Chances initially were 50% and 60% respectively. As the weekend went on it maintained strong percentages, even through yesterday evening, only to show those numbers dwindle as the midnight hour approached. It went from 40% to 30% and down to 20% and today it’s anyone’s guess.

The system moving through appears to be coming up from the Baja region, and was supposed to come up dead-center through the middle part of the state and be more heavier inland than along the coastal areas. The initial predictions had my part of Orange County set to get just under an inch.

So today in the 11am hour here are the following weather reports from the multitude of weather websites…

Outlet Monday 9/21 Tuesday 9/22
Weather.com 85F/ 20% 84F/ 20%
Weather Underground 85F/ 20% 86F/ 20%
Accuweather 88F/ 9-14% 84F/ 14-3%
Nat’l Weather Service 87F/ 20-30% 83F/ 30-20%
Weatherbug 87F/ 40% 84F/ 50%

So essentially… who knows.

Update @ 3:12PM- Well, most of the weather websites are holding at 20% chance of rain, but according to the National Weather Service out of San Diego (whose office covers Orange County), it’s not looking likely:

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW 
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO PRODUCING WITH WARMING CLOUD 
TOPS AND LESS LIGHTNING THAN THIS MORNING. SLOW MOVING BANDS OF 
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND IMPERIAL 
COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS HAVE MOSTLY STAYED TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER ...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN 
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AREAS FARTHER NORTH BEING 
FROM MOUNTAIN BASED CONVECTION.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND 
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CORE OF 
THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE CORE OF THE 
LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS CONFIDENCE 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE 
COUNTY...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. MODELS SHOW 
LESS MOISTURE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE

Update @ 6:30PM- It’s official— the storm was a bust. The system is moving over to Arizona and New Mexico. Till next time folks!

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